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Investment Advisory Staff Reports 08/07/2019MEETING OF THE INVESTMENT ADVISORY/OVERSIGHT JOINT COMMITTEE MEETING Wednesday, August 7, 2019 3:00 p.m, - 4:00 p.m. Finance Conference Room Meeting called by: Facilitator: Type of meeting: Minutes taken by: Attendees: Please read: Please bring: ----- Agenda Topics ----- 1. 2. 9 b 3. Smmry Jy 1-J 019 J Ch 4. Invtmn P Up Jn C 5. T'Invm p f p My & J 209 Js Chan 6. Tx U W Kbw 7. .m Ecnmi & Bs vw W Kbw .rn Fcs:S Tax an Emi Dv 8. Cty U c tt 9. Nx i D-W.Nvm 6,19 10. Pc Cmm 11. Ajrnm MINUTES INVESTMENT ADVISORY (IAC) COMMITTEE INVESTMENT OVERSIGHT (IOC) COMMITTEE Wednesday, May 8, 2019, 3:00 p.m, - Finance Conference Room PRESENT: 1. Call to Order 2. Approval of Meeting Minutes of February 6, 2018. p;d;rr. 3. Rate Summary f h g w iu em ug pi pr 218 ug 219. A R fi.' 4. Investment Portfolio Update p w 'pf g Ap 29 219 :v fi 5. Treasurer's Investment Reports for January, February, and March 2019 xp u cty l ax eu y . fi 6. Discussion on Proposed Changes to the Investment Policy r m iu A.qu fr "AA-"tt ""tt hz . B.A pe i u in ig r 5%f e m p. i:.y r gr h h w u ff rp i 11 JTEM NO. rf)-. DATEOF P 7 a PAGE _ _,_/ __ MEETING __ o_-- _- _I� 7 7. Sales Tax Update wl k p q. :R fi. 8. California Forecast: Sales Tax Trends & Economic Drivers h fl, n pk :R fi. 9. City Update T -k l m:68-pk rutu Lm Chm,25-3 ly;h Pk r-ft $5 ty .Cru - /w lx Tn & Cry Pk l h pm ft & Swft building,R'Lq i Sz R. 10. Next meeting date Wy,Wny Agu 9 3:p F C Rm. 11. Public Comment - T w m Tr w Cuty b ml y M QC h k h h l /y 12. Adjournment - T e rn 3:4 p.m. Rrt Fl,C I ry Ctt Rir Rm Cty Tr Ivmn Ctt Distribution: Mayor and City Council Administrative Services Director, IOC Investment Advisory Committee City Manager, IOC City Treasurer, IOC Investment/Revenue Officer City Clerk RATE SUMMARY July 2018 to June 2019 ·:i��f�i::'. ,:;.,,. ?::' }/:. .:,::.>:: .. �t;,�$t,�Tr�cta,µ_r,f,Yieicl\ ;, ,i . ;:. ;)( :/' ;:.-\�:trJ )i:m.<>nth': a,,mo.riftiZ, :: ::2:v.ii�;:> ".:3;ye�f< ;: .:siea:r.-< Jul-18 2.03% 2.21% 2.67% 2.77% 2.85% 1.94% Aug-18 2.11% 2.28% 2.62% 2.70% 2.74% 2.00% Sep-18 2.19% 2.36% 2.81% 2.88% 2.94% 2.06% Oct-18 2.34% 2.49% 2.87% 2.93% 2.98% 2.14% Nov-18 2.37% 2.52% 2.80% 2.83% 2.84% 2.21% Dec-18 2.45% 2.56% 2.48% 2.46% 2.51% 2.29% Jan-19 2.41% 2.46% 2.45% 2.43% 2.43% 2.36% Feb-19 2.45% 2.50% 2.52% 2.50% 2.52% 2.39% Mar-19 2.40% 2.44% 2.27% 2.21% 2.23% 2.44% Apr-19 2.43% 2.46% 2.27% 2.24% 2.28% 2.45% May-19 2.35% 2.35% 1.95% 1.90% 1.93% 2.45% Jun-19 2.12% 2.09% 1.75% 1.71% 1.76% 2.43% .. ', 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.00% +-��....-��....-��-.-��-,-��--1 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 -+-3 month �6 month -9-2 year ...,_3 year ""*"95 year _..LAIF ITEMNO. '3 DATEOF P 7 a PAGE __ I __ MEETING_o_., __ -I __ /_, Investment Portfolio Update As of 7-30-19 1hstruments'L·::' >, , co� 'iio.\M�iu.ri · >7 Money Market Mutual Fund - Treasury Sweep Medium Term Note 1 year 3 year $ 33,000,000 5,444,349 13,998,753 2,000,000 15,998,753 26.1% 4.3% 11.1% 1.6% 12.7% Federal Agency 1 year 28,000,530 22.1% 2 year 36,995,562 29.3% 4 year 7,000,000 5.6% Total 71,996,092 56.9% Total $ 126,439, 194 100.0% ITEMNO. � DATE OF a PAGE / MEETING_<f_,_7_-_1 _, _ --:,__ __ City of Orange Investment Portfolio As of 7-30-19 't. 80,443,632 "' ' 36,995,562 c.o C"., C') r- 2,000,000 ,- u, �-, 7,000,000 : � r-- e-, , Q) UJ (IJ f ,._ _.I�� ·�6,439,194 0 : : >- >- .... C'l C") -::i- lt) � 0 2 s ,g PURCHASE MATURITY DAYS TO PAR BOOK MARKET �::�C')'CS' DATE DESCRIPTION DATE MATURITY RATE YIELD VALUE VALUE VALUE City 7/30/2019 2.370 2.370 10,300,000.00 10,300,000.00 10,300,000,00 Successor Agency 7/30/2019 2.370 2.370. 22,700,000.00 22,700,000.00 22,700,000.00 Money Market Mutual Fund . 7/30/2019 2.222 2.222 5,444,349.00 5,444,349.00 5,444,349.00 4/21/2017 Microsoft MTN 8/8/2019 9 1.100 1.409. 4,000,000.00 3,998,753.00 3,995,240.00 4/28/2016 FNMA 10/28/2019 90 1.400 1.400 1,000,000.00 1,000,000.00 997,797.00 4/19/2017 FFCB 1/3/2020 157 1.625 1.625 4,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 3,992,796.00 6/14/2016 FFCB 2/18/2020 203 1.360 1.359 6,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 5,976,750.00 5/26/2016 FNMA 2/25/2020 210 1.500 1.500 9,000,000.00 9,000,000.00 8,969,319.00 4/27/2016 FNMA 4/27/2020 272 1.450 1.450 6,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 5,973,828.00 6/29/2017 Toyota MTN 6/29/2020 335 2.000 2.000 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 9,932.430.00 3/29/2018 FHLB 6/29/2020 335 2.500 2.259 2,000.000.00 2,000,530.00 2,000,408.00 5/27/2016 . FNMA 11/30/2020 489 1.500 1.51-1 4,000,000.00 3,999,373.00 3,977,232.00 2/25/2016 FFCB 2/17/2021 568 1.620 1.640 5,000,000.00 4,998,365.00 4,983,205.00 5/26/2016 FNMA 5/25/2021 665 1.750 1.750 15,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 14,963,670.00 7/20/2016 FNMA 7/27/2021 728 1.550 1.550 6,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 5,974,440.00 7/20/2016 FHLB 7/27/2021 728 1.500 1.515 7,000,000.00 6,997,824.00 6,951,889.00 10/5/2016 Apple MTN 8/4/2021 736 1.550 1.550 . 2,000,000.00 2,000,000.00 1,980,646.00 8/30/2017 FHLB 8/26/2022 1123 2.125 2.125 7,000,000.00 7,000,000.00 7,002,443.00 126,444,349.00 126,439, 194.00 126, 116,442.00 �s from called bonds. 26.10% LAIF 33,000,000.00 33,000,000.00 33,000,000.00 56.94% Agency 72,000,000.00 71,996,092.00 71,763,777.00 I 4.31% Money Market Mutual Fund 5,444,349.00 5,444,349.00 5,444,349.00 se. 0.00% Commercial Paper 0.00 0.00 0.00 I 12.65% Medium Term Note 16,000,000.00 15,998,753.00 15,908,316.00 100.00% 126,444,349.0_0 126,439, 194.00 126, 116,442.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.65% 16,000,000.00 15,998,354.00 15,954,740.00 11.86% 15,000,000.00 14,998,365.00 14,952, 751.00 32.43% 41,000,000.00 40,999,373.00 40,856,286.00 56.94% 72,000,000.00 71,996,092.00 71,763,777.00 �1 DATEOF o ITEM NO. _,_PAGE _=-Z- __ MEETING__.;;..O_· 7_ .. t. f · _ AGENDA ITEM August13,2019 TO: Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council THRU: Rick Otto, City Manager FROM: Richard A. Rohm, City Treasurer�ol--- William M. Kolbow, Assistant City Manager/Administrative Services Director "'7/;.� REVIEW: 1. SUBJECT 2. SUMMARY 3. RECOMMENDED ACTION 4. FISCAL IMPACT 5. STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS E mg p i s 6. DISCUSSION AND BACKGROUND The Citys curre Sm Imn y p b Cci of th Ci f Og R 118 w i Govm o S 5360 q P I P my vetm po m w 45 wg d qe s rq y y I e City er'ep li m m b e S Ag m b k ' The monthl Cple Re ig pn n w b he Gov C Im i . ·- @ @ & (1 l 019 x $191 y ec $9,88,rt x $19 15 , $1 ,15 d $,x ee rig ,g b i g $0 ERS d $6 B B E pp I p l C l L.I p $5,00,i e $00000 u xg i g T i $,1 (g L I F.) 5 % rt c u i s im q 3 y , w abov e 50% i w I $,0 ,8 y c g i needs o h i lu ig l p pp y y F th th M 0 19 T x $7,05 0 y c i $79 ,rt x o $,i rrt x $4 1 y $,0 ,5 prt y x e c le he , $9 ,2 i l x D ,g i $,1 E empl be $,69,S t F Eq $210,11 O B y ry ITEM NO._�_PAGE .. ��1WoAziLL-� For the month of June 2019 e y .1 J e f y .bl %% l (g AI l ortf r q y wc w 0%i i 99 T ry l hn 365 a i monh nd g Credit rating dn investments Dig h i rt Investment Advisory Committee (IAC) The mo rn i w i qrty me N 7. ATTACHMENTS m M I R ,· [ MONTHLY SUMMARY COMPLIANCE CERTIFICATE Note: All concentration restrictions were obtained from Sections 53601 and 53635 of the Government Code or the City's Investment Policy as of June 12, 2018, whichever was the more stringent. 1. U.S. Agencies X ---- 2. Money Market Mutual Funds X 3. LAIF ( '--�· X ---- 4. Commercial Paper X ---- 5. Medium-Term Notes 8,8, I e an (B X ---- 6. Excluded Investment Vehicles Ar an sus xcd S Pc curr inc t 'prt ---- No __X _ 7. Investment Management Agreements A)D C ang dr gr e__X n,ki 8 ITEM NO. _6' PAGE_f __ ��i��-� I �LL'L .. _ ( I -- 8. Maturity Limits (B) X X ---- X ---- X (F) X 9. Issuer Limits e h My Mk Mtu Fun g qm g Sur n Ex Cmm Iv A 4 NIA X---- ()e fu f hige g tw h hr g l g g Yes _NIA X )Has u st w th S Exchang mmis w l fi ar p ing k mutu fun a $? N NIA X·---=-=---- ITEM NO. _tf PAGE_ ..... 6 __ ��-g ...... /'"""'7 6..:...19'---- Prepared By: �� JephieChan Investment/Revenue Officer Audited By: R6'sariGu� Accountant Mk g CE D Pg R D,S Ts f,US.T US.Bk Certified By: 12· �Lr-I>{ Pr 12, {___ Richard A. Rohm City Treasurer Verified By: William M. Kolbow Assistant City Manager Administrative Services Director DATED: July 29, 2019 « DATE OF 8'(?/t, ITEM NO. -�-PAGE_.....--_MEETING_.....,;..... _ City of Orange Investment Portfolio April 30, 2019 (Sorted by TYPE) rv U i Portfolio total 4-30-19 Portfolio total 3-31-19 (ll EE O OGG I tfl Ncu & I tfe iu & In U Fina i ini tifl icu &o Ic i () tf iclu & Ic f u &I tfl u & In (I LOCA AGNCY I U (LA) ()E E E i rv mi: !2. tf & In g} U i rv z )U ( c:) �---"c.:..,,.,��.;,;,.��'---:;:..,;.;,,...,c;.;.:;.:...;...;.. Port.10 Investment Transactions April 2019 SETILEMENT DA TE DESCRIPTION RATE YIELD CALLABLE PAR PRICE Various dates Sweep Account PURCHASES I DEPOSITS 2.314% N/A $ 21,817,543.95 $21,817,543.95 ·� ' i G) m Various dates Buy.Sel\.10 L.A.I.F. 2.445% 2.445% N/A $ 17,489,783.88 $17,489,783.88 � ! Investment Transactions April 2019 SETILEMENT DATE DESCRIPTION RATE YIELD CALLABLE PAR PRICE MATURITIES I WITHDRAWALS I CALLS -i. m I: z 0 Various dates Sweep Account 2.314% 2.314% N/A $21,978,341.26 $21,978,341.26 "\ � m Various dates ·· .. - Buy.Sell.10 L.A.I.F. 2.445% 2.445% N/A $1,389,783.88 $1,389,783.88 City of Orange Investment Portfolio April 30, 2019 Portfolio Performance Measures Portfolio � . � Rate of Return: i 4/30/2019 r . Total Rate of Return: 2019 :0 )i, Other: 4/30/19 3/31/19 4/30/19 ,0 1.91% 1.80% 1.93% 0.48% 0.64% 1.02 99.30% 98.59% 50.65% Indexes 2.42% 3 vg 2.45% 6 h ry ·g 2.42% 1 y Try ••p 0.21% 1-3 e ry x-ta o Api (t annalized) 1.20% 1-3 Ts x--ta 2019 --D (not annalized) Years S: 0 ffl !!J � Q o rt g pr \I.I "Tt T fi tz a a n of po i pi o s y uon . rt.10 7/29/2019 9:39AM City of Orange Investment Portfolio April 30, 2019 "", ...... - Yo ..· $2 141 Yo ---- . '· d .50%· Fera Farm Crt Bank $5 55%-- Y .24% Fa ana rtgag Assocaon ------ $4 2884% .609% Tya M Tr $0.7.04% d 20%Mny Mak Muua Fund $25 79% Y 2.34% Lca gncy Invetnt Fund $56 32.08% Y 2.445% -----Federa Hoe Loan Bank -----0 1126% Y .92% Total Portfolio $142, 143,968 Chart Dollar Values in Millions of Dollars \ ) ( i City of Orange lnvestment Portfolio April 30, 2019 Maturity Aging Schedule Weighted-average years to maturity for portfolio = 1.02 4-5 years 59% 15% 21% 5% 0% 100% 3-4 years �� Book Value 84,148,202 20,998, 116 29,997,650 7,000,000 0 $142, 143,968 2-3 years 1-2 years Maturing in 0-1 years 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years 0-1 years $30,000,000 i:O m >,.$20.000.000 �m _ $10,000,000 5� s- -� � 3: z o 1� $100,000,000 $90,000,000 J $80,000,000 G') $70,000,000 m $60,000,000 ..... $50,000,000 � $40,000,000 Matur.10 City of Orange Reconciliation of Total Cash and Investments to General Ledger As of April 30, 2019 '· Treasurer's Operating Cash and Investments Checking, Payroll & PMA - Wells Fargo Treasurer's Investments Cash in transit Imprest Cash Fiscal Agent Cash and Investments Total Cash & Investments Total Cash and Investments per General Ledger 1 Plus Outstanding Checks Total Cash & Investments 1 Includes adjustment for month-end timing differences. 488,212 142, 143,968 182,503 142,814,683 ------- 12,200 3,319,335 146,146,218 145,877,457 268,761 146,146,218 GI Cash.10 AttaehmentV ! DATEOF I J ITEM·NO. ---· PAGE __ t! __ MEETING_K_?_,_11q __ City of Orange Fiscal Agent Investments As of April 30, 2019 Fiscal Agent Cash and Investments & & Obligation & Carrying Value Market or Contract Value ,44 ,4 9 3,933 ITEM No S' ,,1 DATE OF ( 1 . PAGE /....i.,: __ MEETING � 7111 -----.;..;.....;_ __ Note: All concentration restrictions were obtained from Sections 53601 and 53635 of the Government Code or the City's Investment Policy as of June 12, 2018, whichever was the more stringent. = %rt ,hi f y v= I A (B?Y X N ---- k LF ty= 3%rtl a ty v l ?Y ---- N X-�'---- r l a)mmi pp y y=$ un 20%rt a f i stm=34,72 l h ?Y X N ---- -r Not ok -rm th =57 ot a 0%f rt a y est h f purs =$3,, A an )?Ys X ---- xdd vtmt Vhi an xc h n f Is P url l ty'o? Y ---- N X ---- vtt agt rm D h ty ae an s r gr? Y N X ,sp um 8 , DATE OF J ITEM NQ._G' __ PAGE_t_.) MEETING_�_f __ 11 ...... 1I 'l_ .... _.., ,. -- ( -- -- -- -- 8. Maturity Limits X ---- X ---- ---- (F) X ---- 9. Issuer Limits NIA -==--- Ds h fu f eah rr hie hr g Yes _-- NIA H g an xchan ommio x gg y k utual fun w ss i $0 NIA ·-==--- DATE OF I ITEM NO. _s_�_PAGE __ ,1, __ MEETING __ g_, l_t 9_. -- -- 8. Maturity Limits X X ---- X ---- X ---- (F) X o _ 9. Issuer Limits My Mar M F g rqir )a ur S x mm Iv my 4 NIA -�-- fu arr hi tw th hr ar g ---- NIA X (i H a g S E mmi fi yar x gg mark tua fund wh $mi NIA ·-==---- 5 DATEOF I ITEM NO. PAGE , 7 __ MEET!NG_'C� �7/I, ( Prepared By: �CR� JephieChan Investment/Revenue Officer Audited By: flw vr t nxt six m'pd bg p tu di rk values btin throgh IE D g R D S Tsu'Offi,US Trus an US Bak. .. -----. Certified By: !3e-Lt:µrA ,&�/.-.._ Richard A. Rohm City Treasurer Verified By: William M. Kolbow Assistant City Manager Administrative Services Director DATED: July 29, 2019 DATE OF ITEM NO._S_,. __ PAGE /_8 __ MEETiNG City of Orange Investment Portfolio May 31, 2019 (Sorted by TYPE) Portfolio total 5-31-19 Portfolio total 4-30-19 go ank ''\ ()MD TE NTE ....._nnal ervces nnl rves nnl Srves =i RArn fel icous & o nI: tif icolu &o Inc Sf lus & Incz Q ll EDRA RGG •tife ioaus &In fel us &o In nnil rvs nnil rves ife ico aus &Co Inc in anci rvis :tJ ()DRA D :I> UB i nania Services G) n anl rvs ffl UB n nc al ervics �o m� �m zo G) "Tl Port.11 ! -� ' Investment Transactions May 2019 SETTLEMENT DATE DESCRIPTION RATE YIELD CALLABLE PAR PRICE PURCHASES I DEPOSITS � m . Various dates Sweep Account 2.246% 2.246% N/A $ 16,357,980.19 $16,357,980.19 i: z 0 Various dates L.A.I.F. 2.449% 2.449% N/A $ 16,500,000.00 $16,500,000.00 . J G') m Buy.Sell.11 Investment Transactions May 2019 SETILEMENT DATE DESCRIPTION RATE YIELD CALLABLE PAR PRICE MATURITIES I WITHDRAWALS I CALLS J G) m . \(arious dates Various dates Buy.Sell.11 Sweep Account L.A.I.F. 2.246% 2.449% 2.246% 2.449% NIA N/A $10,07 4;37 4.01 $10,07 4,37 4.01 $6,200,000.00 $6,200,000.00 City of Orange Investment Portfolio May 31, 2019 Portfolio Performance Measures Portfolio =fate of Return: 5/31/2019 0 Total Rate of Return: 2019 :OOther: )j 5/31/19 m ket i 4/30/19 Ay Si p .rtfl,5/31/19 1.95% 1.82% 2.00% 0.25% 0.92% 0.90 99.64% 99.30% 47.14% Indexes 2.39% 3 mh Try y 2.41% 6 h Try y 2.34% 1 y Try -ra 0.71% 1-3 Try xTl y (nz) 1.92% 1-3 Try lxT 2019 T0 z) Years t' rty ca ,bl)n rt; in t se of cun nsn,icus jusn t c n p isun ci '.;!» �rce o Mk V:ICE D Pig n Rc Data ak aue a nsnsfTI .,al Rrn:grwth cn n h l h rtfli,cg b gs in h k l c,rtin h srt l, fl1 � ajus igh ss (p Mfi Detz M)h fls n u h rtf ug h p -i m T Mfi Dtz M sss s a h rtf ug h n is n s n i un. �� - J:) Port.11 7/30/2019 12:18 M City of Orange Investment Portfolio May 31, 2019 -: 4 ield 409%I pp m o � $2.0 .3 � ield 550%-----. ra Naioa ortgag Associti ------- $41 16 m C k $0 2 1% :0 )> G') m =i i z 0 . - -I) Total Portfolio $152, 733,961 Chart Dollar Values in Millions of Dollars City of Orange Ii. .stment Portfolio May 31, 2019 Maturity Aging Schedule Maturing in 0-1 years 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Book Value 94,738,032 35,998,192 14,997,737 7,000,000 0 $152,733,961 Weighted-average years to maturity for portfolio = 61% 24% 10% 5% 0% 100% 0.90 $100,000,000 ,------------------------------------------------. 4-5 years 3-4 years 2-3 years 1-2 years 0-1 years $30,000,000 t::,,000.000 :> $'Mf,OOO,OOO m 0 $- -- ..,, $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 Matur.11 City of Orange Reconciliation of Total Cash and Investments to General Ledger As of May 31, 2019 Treasurer's Operating Cash and Investments Checking, Payroll & PMA - Wells Fargo Treasurer's Investments Cash in transit 213,404 152,733,961 (3,074,881) 149,872,484 Imprest Cash Fiscal Agent Cash and Investments 12,200 3,329,605 Total Cash & Investments 153,214,289 Total Cash and Investments per General Ledger Plus Outstanding Checks 152,496,405 717,884 Total Cash & Investments 153,214,289 GL Cash.11 AttachmentV , DATEOf ITEM NO. _� __ PAGE __ � _s_MEETING___.;:;K--/-'-'7 / .... 1..,_9 _ 1 Includes adjustment for month-end timing differences. City of Orange Fiscal Agent Investments As of May 31, 2019 Fiscal Agent Cash and Investments & k G bt ) t Mrt 17) y 8 M & d -k bit ) M 7) Cy 6-e T Rf -B F g F U ry B 437) y 4 M & T t -S k F G b ) y - t ) T h I Carrying Value 7, ,7, ,4 4 ,7,7 3 ,, Market or Contract Value 7,3 ,7,3 ,4 46 ,67,7 ,,6 � DATEOF I I ITEM N0._.;7 __ PAGE __ z.._c.. __ MEET'°iNG_ 8 ,,, ,,- 1 I Note: All concentration restrictions were obtained from Sections 53601 and 53635 of the Government Code or the City's Investment Policy as of June 12, 2018, whichever was the more stringent. ---- ---- un LF amun 3%p )i I an ---- X ----=-c�- o un mmi p C 2%p b n ()tan N ---- (un b n n -rm n 5 (C Tota amount aw 0%b n e pur = Is ss an N ---- xld Inv Vh (A Are any securit exe b f P urr n h 'p Yes _---- x .nvt n gn A Does th Cit ave an i ang gre es N X ,ki numr 8 .,. DATE OF ITEM NO._!:, __ PAGE_�_, __ MEETING f /_7�;_1.;...1 __ ( ',. ...... / 8. Maturity Limits (B) X ---- ---- X ---- (F) ---- 9. Issuer Limits c mm un p ? NIA --=-=---- fun arr hig ing tw hr arg gc ---- NIA X ·---·· i as a s tm v g Sri an Echan Cmm 'x gg tu fu g c $ NIA -�-- ITEM NQ._.s_"'_PAGE___,2- ....... r __ ��i�� 8 /7/1� Prepared By: (� I.,_.' �CJ<;tv · �han Investment/Revenue Officer Audited By: U B r ,' ' Certified By: . /?i-d.� A--"l:t, L Richard A. Rohm City Treasurer Verified By: William M. Kolbow Assistant City Manager Administrative Services Director DATED: July 29, 2019 5' DATE Of f. /,I,, ITEM NO. PAGE_;.._?.__MEETiNG _ �\ City of Orange Investment Portfolio June 30, 2019 (Sorted by TYPE) BANK/BROKER PURCHASE DATE DESCRIPTION MATURITY DATE RATE YIELD PAR VALUE BOOK VALUE MARKET VALUE (I) LOCAL AGENCY INVESTMENT FUND (LAIF) 57,200,000.00 57,200,000.00 57,200,000.00 16,000,000.00 15,998,354.54 15,954, 7 40.00 I 41,000,000.00 40,999,372. 77 40,856,286.00 15,000,000.00 14,998,364.96 14,952, 751.00 16,000,000.00 15,998, 752.65 15,908,316.00 6,615,595.90 6,615,595.90 6,615,595.90 151,815,595.90 151,810,440.82 151,487,688.90 152, 7 40,290. 78 152,733,960.59 152,183,493.78 Portfolio total 6-30-19 Portfolio total 5·31-19 (VI) MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (TREASURY) J (IV) FEDERAL FARM CREDIT BANK Ci) m (V) MEDIUM TERM NOTE \N Cl FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK -t ffi _c_.��-3/_2_w_20_1_8�F-H_L�B��--��---6-n_9_/2_0_2_0 ��--��----��-=-:-':'��--��...,....,,�� .� (Ill) FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION • S f I N u & I A c S s A na c MA t Ni & In 2 NMA rvi 2 NMA Port.12 .. · Investment Transactions June 2019 SETTLEMENT DATE DESCRIPTION RATE YIELD CALLABLE PAR PRICE PURCHASES I DEPOSITS �, . . . . Various dates 6/3/2019 Buy.Sell.12 Sweep Account L.A.I.F. 2.222% 2.428% 2.222% 2.428% NIA N/A $ 7,351,323:09 $ 3,500,000.00 $7;351-,323.09 $3,500,000.00 Investment transactions June 2019 SEITLEMENT DATE DESCRIPTION RATE YIELD CALLABLE PAR PRICE MATURITIES I WITHDRAWALS I CALLS '. Various dates 6/14/2019 Buy.Sell.12 . - Sweep Account L.A.I.F. 2.222% 2.428% 2222% 2.428% NIA N/A · $9;584;699.25 $2,200,000.00 $9,584,699.25 $2,200,000.00 City of Orange Investment Portfolio June 30, 2019 Portfolio Performance Measures Portfolio Rate of Return: ==. m 6/30/2019 z � Total Rate of Return: 2019 �, Other: :'D 6/30/19 G'> 5/31/19 ffl 6/30/19 1.93% 1.83% 1.99% 0.25% 1.18% 0.86 47.43% 99.64% 99.78% Indexes 2.20% 2.16% 6 2.00% 1 0.51 % 1-3 2.44% 1-3 2019 Years u,i tint of 365 divided by days in period). rtf Yd Muty wgh y muriy ,c)r rtflio ; in h nmn,nu jsn h c e n mu r ut i. S f M k Vu : ICE D Prn g n R D k nunt s. � .�I u : g wth r li i h lue f h e portfi,i u in h ch g i th mr k lu ic,pr rt n of th starting valu , m � ju n twi gh (M fi D tz Mh ) r h flw n h rtf ung h p riod.m 4 Th Mi fi D tz Mh a un h rtf un g h pr d n not ba n daily valuations. -im . zo Q'"'i'l rt.12 7/30/2019 12:16 M City of Orange lnvestment Portfolio June 30, 2019 I t � $0 .3% d .550%-----_.-. F C B 88% Y % Fral ana ortgg Assocation ------- $7% Y % Total Portfolio $151,810,441 Chart Dollar Values in Millions of Dollars City of Orange I{ :,stment Portfolio June 30, 2019 Maturity Aging Schedule Maturing in 0-1 years 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Book Value 95,814,879 33,997,738 14,997,824 7,000,000 0 $151,810,441 Weighted-average years to maturity for portfolio = 63% 22% 10% 5% 0% 100% 0.86 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 6.000.000 �.000,000 m t,,000,000 '"T1 $60,000,000 \ $50,000,000 $40,000,000 0-1 years 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Matur.12 '----- / \ City of Orange Reconciliation of Total Cash and Investments to General Ledger As of June 30, 2019 Treasurer's Operating Cash and Investments Checking, Payroll & PMA - Wells Fargo Treasurer's Investments Cash in transit Imprest Cash Fiscal Agent Cash and Investments Total Cash & Investments Total Cash and Investments per General Ledger 1 Plus Outstanding Checks Total Cash & Investments 136,024 151,810,441 (2,082,739) 149,863,726 12,200 3,330,153 153,206,079 151,878,999 1,327,080 153,206,079 I DATE Of A:�c��:�/� ITEM NO. __ s'_PAGE_3_'- MEETING_f'i __ / ..... , l..r.../ '-9 _ 1 Includes adjustment for month-end timing_ differences. City of Orange Fiscal Agent Investments As of June 30, 2019 Fiscal Agent Cash and Investments 1 · & rs ian Gm Ob F ( oa a A Ch Carrying Value ,0 ,6,7 , ,6, ,, Market or Contract Value , ,, ,4 6 ,6, ,, DATE OF I I ITEM NO. ----� __ ,._PAGE_ ...... � 1 __ MEETING_f�7 f ..... 11_9 _ 0 z � UJ � Food� i and - Drugs� tu �� County and State Pools II 1st Quarter 2018 II 1st Quarter 2019 Restaurants Building and and Hotels Construction 2017-18 2018-19 Point-of-Sale $27,921,692 $31,837,561 County Pool 3,708,346 4,397,507 State Pool 17,510 16,317 Gross Receipts $31,647,549 $36,251,386 REVENUE COMPARISON Three Quarters- Fiscal Year To Date (Q3 to 01) Published by Hdl Companies in Summer 2019 Hd' � www.hdlcompanies.com I 888.861.0220 ).; Business and Industry City of Orange Sales Tax Update & Supply . rt Autos General and Consumer Transportation Goods TOP 25 PRODUCERS IN ALPH<BETICAL O�DER Second Q11arter Re.-eipts for First Quarter Sales (]a1111ary - March 2019) SALES TAX BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUP $0 $800,000 $600,000 $200,000 $400,000 $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $1,000,000 $1,600,000 $1,200,000 Ql 2019 City of Orange Sales Tax Update •tn thousands dollars Orange County Hdl State Business Type Q1 •19• Change Change Change 715.4 10.5% 2.7% 4.0% 560.7 5.4% 9.9% 13.3% 285.8 -2.7% --0.2% 4.8% 0.8% 2.7% 192.7 -6.6% -7.3% -3.4% 272.5 4.5% 6.9% 7.1% 226.9 53.4% 35.1% 25.7% 246.4 3.5% 18.4% 13.7% 267.5 36.8% 53.7% 5.5% 1,129.5 -7.5% 2.2% -1.9% ic Rerats 437.2 9.6% 8.0% 10.0% Srv 568.9 17.6% 0.6% 15.6% oe es 188.1 3.7% -17.4% -0.7% pecilty r 173.1 22.2% 23.7% 23.6% Total All Accounts 7,315.8 -13.5% 10.9% 13.5% County & State Pool Allocation 1,067.3 -5.7% 21.0% 23.8% Gross Receipts 8,383.1 -12.6% 12.1% 14.9% SALES PER CAPITA REVENUE Bv Busrxsss GROUP Orange This Quarter California Q1 Q1 18 19 BusJlnd. j 17% 13% County Q1 17 12% - - ,_ - - ,- - - - - - ,_1-- ... - I ' I-� - -;: ...... ..... ..ii '!" - - - """ r ...... - ,_ - ,_ ,_ . - - ,- - i- ,_ - 5% Cons.Goods 18% Q1 16 Orange $0 Auos/T 20% $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 ORANGE TOP 15 BUSINESS TYPES Slower Growth Ahead? Statewide Results s C s g L ff Th n w .3 T w ffs b J ou U S x H w ff. Th C an w u tt Th - U L g - . JUNE 2019 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW CONTENTS 1 12 21 O Countyrc Up Gowth Popc Wkn -On Fn 1 Onge Couty T 1 -8 Popl V wih Thr Akowlmn & & economic forecasts R wi en y D1'. J D D1'. S.fr. b m m n u ,mn ,u n n n g . Iq s g ng m bmn b Rv b mil @ hapman. edu,(714)997-6693 g © 2019 ry f m g/u f xp f p g x b . A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH James L. Doti, Ph.D. President Emeritus and Professor of Economics Raymond Sfeir, Ph.D. Director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research A. Gary Anderson Chair of Economic Analysis Marc Weidenmier Research Fellow Linda Corcoran Research Associate Dorothy Farol Research Associate Laura Neis Research Assistant Michael Schidlovsky Student Research Assistant Benen Weir Student Research Assistant ADVISORY BOARD Lee Ann Canaday Canaday Group Deborah Stickley Diep Center for Demographic Research California State University, Fullerton Maritza Gamboa Employment Development Department State of California Jerry Holdner Kidder Mathews DEAN'S MESSAGE Thomas Dean hm r stry.O rnk o 5%w Fty ,bg 4 y,jy un W prty x o w Mr R T pm prtn twk t b cs r ri x tu A w p 220, y n xry w R fo ty o i Srn Crn k prt 20 Anvs e, ri p l N ,J Gg W f f hp.O O 9,w i ry Jui y v the 43rd President of the United States, W. .I op y w j v 1 2019 U.S FORECAST UPDATE · . THE INTEREST RATE s·PREAD INVERTS BUT THE FED HAS ROOM TO MANEUVER Percent Percent 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 17:l 17:2 17:3 17:4 18:l 18:2 18:3 18:4 19:1 19:2 if INTEREST RATES AND PRICE CHANGES LOANS Loans and Leases Y rN r % Change 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 I IPC�----- 3 - ,,,,,.�----- I ----r-- 1 PPCE 2 -----�1 ·�-- -------- ---r------- --- ---r I I 99: I 99:2 99:3 99:4 00: l 00:2 00:3 00:4 4 Interest Rate Spread Percent 4 3 0 -1 -2 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 An by INTEREST RATE SPREAD VERSUS LOANS AND LEASES 7 6 l��t::::�:::::J::::::� 5 INTEREST RATES AND PRICE CHANGES S A h h urv b j 2 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW 10.7 HOUSING STARTS [�� -2.1 0 5 -5 10 % 15 , nru sry T tu sry g v g gg e m 5 t 4 S s srt U.S dlg rpy 1 s Db, Ud rp fi s y rs x F y w o y 2 ,, m s y 1.0 18:1 18:2 18:3 18:4 19:1 19:2f 19:3f 19:4f CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PRICE INDEX A Rv ,C-US W P e m w tri a gnfiy i My y oi y ges 3 r g fli tu I ty, -fl xm ty 1 tt g 1 p ttriud o flnry prs T ugy fl F e flry e O U ras a GDP g as k 219 Wh g s 28,w o y y b xon sry US REAL GDP 2.0 2.5 1.5 % 3.0 lf S. FORECAST TABLES . % 4 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19f 3 2 0 2.9 '15 '16 '17 2.9 '18 '19f present GDP, and levels and ofchange; 3 .5 6 'presents quarter-to-quarter at ....-. . . � .. JUNE 2019 3 4 U.S. VARIABLES TABLE 1 ANNUAL HISTORY AND 'FORECASTS: 2014-2019 LEVELS n)41. Uepymt e .8 Mnary Aggrga(iins Ml M2 ..................................... _.: ................................................. 0-, Rl M .. ri Indicar u e Ide:A ts -=).1 1.l Pe t xnus rie e: (. e (). e & u ) e e n . A ex . u ar nd u U . r a u u l ,9 - im ... a ry d,I O-Year ....................................................... I.�2 -Y ixd M rt n d -Y 'I-Bond L d u f= t ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW ANNUAL HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2014-2019 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGES 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019{ Details of GDP: NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA - Employment: \ Monetary Aggregates: ...:........4 8 Price Indicators: Cnu Ind :A Ims 6 rsn Cosumtn xpntur d : L F d n gy 9 D flr ru O --1 Existing Homes: ,Sn Fmiy & -- Man ri F x Fmiy 6.9 A Fmi Housing Starts: F with r r r •••••••••••••••••..•..•• Interest Rates: F NIA NIA NIA NIA r d ,r 6 6 6 4 8 F d r L Fd F d NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA =F JUNE 2019 6 U.S. VARIABLES . TABLE 3 Ql)ARTERLY HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:4 LEVELS ($ ...........- Tl rnm uchss ..............3,1-18 ,,0 Frl rnnt urches ....12 ,23 c rn e T e ($ M2 ...................................... : ........................................... ,, ..............................1 , c I c tr C u ric In x:All I s -=20 ..4 Ps p p c x: L 0 1 c 0 =1 l . e l l F & us , ric ,- ce 1 1 0 F n r er t t r 2 Teu ,........1.1..4 .4 . im .....................0 . Te ury n ,IO-Y .................. ..2 Y g ....4 I O-Y -B F Fun ..1...3 0. f=F c ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW QlJARTERLY HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:4 YEAR-TO-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA Imrt ......................... Empymt T a Narm ayll Jb Umpym R .1.1.-- Mntary I l . 1.3 1.3 t p E t l & l y y b t U l U n NIA .NIA ...................... B n ,0 Ya ......3 -4.4 - -Y ix Mrt g .................... .--8 -. ( ( r (Y Fun ) .... NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA f=F JUNE 2019 7 8 U.S. VARIABLES TABLE 5 Q1JARTERLY HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:4 LEVELS 18:1 18:2 18:3 18:4 19:1 19:2f 19:3f 19:4f Details of GDP ($ Billions): Employment: Monetary Aggregates($ Billions): Price Indicators: u ri In:Al (-=) Pl op Exptu ri In: L F an g (=1 DP P fl (=).l rud O ($/bl 2 Existing Homes: S,S-Fmi & h,AAR)3 Mian Pri,Sing -am y$Th an ri Inx , Sin -F ly =) Af b ty , ing -F mily l Housing Starts (Thousands, SAAR): T l Ho ing art 1., ing -Fam U Ui B di wh U M Interest Rates: r F ..9 2 2 sury B , -y . rim .. ury B , I -Y -Year Fix M rtg g .. t p (IO-Y -B L F Fun) =F t ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW w 00 VI 0 N N 0 l;.l w 0 N N N Vl ....... \D ' ..... VI :i,.. i.o ' E; 00 N w N i-.J ' .,. 00 °' ce oe oo ' WO ;,_ 0 I I .,_. - 1--' I w .......... 1--' � '...li.ni.no I N W l>l 1--' N oo oo -.J N :i,.. :i,.. '...l ' ' N ,_. 0 0 VI o i.n o I I I 00 00 00 i.n N w ' .......... WON ce i.n '...l ...... .i,. 00 N -.J ,_. OW WNW OO\ONwN I � 6',� WW :>w"'i.nw:i,.. � 00000 :> 00000 '---< ----- c:::: z tT1 N 0 ....... <o 2019 CALIFORNIA FORECAST UPDATE CALIFORNIXS LOSING ITS MOJO BARELY KEEPING PACE WITH THE U.S. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT '15 I I i I LI\ I I " -1 ' i If 1 ..... j_i, i/ 1/1 ..... � lr" -r I I'" I .... � 1J l i I I I I ! I 'I I I i TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PERMITS MORTGAGE RATE Percent 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 15:1 15:3 16:l 16:3 17:l 17:3 18:I 18:3 19:1 '19f '18 '17 '16 Annual % Change 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 '14 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT truction,rt & g rm rv 10 0 -10 -20 18:1 18:2 18:3 18:4 19:1 19:2 19:3 19:4 Y r!Y r % Change 30 T rvl l ave sid rm fu g I od,v,t rt m ,sruc uk 9 u v mu k'19f '16 '17 '18 '15 '14 0 Annual % Change 10 8 6 4 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 114 '18 '19f 115 '17 115 '16 'IS '14 Thousands of Units 130 120 110 100 90 80 T sru jb urr l 8 u T u mm u prm ut vs, T rn, us rp mrt pk Mrt v m m 5 rr u 4 T ba i 10 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIE\A IMPORTS FROM CHINA % 0 PERCENT OF INFORMATION SERVICE JOBS IN THE SILICON VALLEY TO CA INFORMATION SERVICE JOBS SIL CO�VALLIY ' I ,_ -- � - I' ....- - !., - ...... ... v ' i,...,, �I [\ I <NI �c )U, rru , �v ........ CAL\FO ts I\ C UTrID 8 SI ,IC CJNr'AljLE , ...... r I •CA ll!US I % PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT l-+--+-+-t-+---+-i--+--t-t--+--1 _,,,'-+-+-l-++-1- CALIFORNIA FORECAST TABLES change.' .10 pr�se�t qtiarteily 0 arterly basis.·;'·..·.·.. ':-' , .. _ .. ' . ·,• & g 57 3), 6 0%j l p 0 5 w U j wt v rp p & O p 6-runl fu gr p & a u p h p y w fi,dubl i fi q 19 g , rt & hu u fling 209 y Php p 'futu T g a y tw v A fi w ' 01 rr y I ,rv j wkn ly Anna % g 0.0 -4 - 8 JUNE 2019 11 CALIFORNIA VARIABLES . TABLE 7 ANNUAL HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2014-2019 LEVELS & & & & & & & ) T Tx n g h , A rink 0 t Vhi rt , Oth xitg H -miy & n 1 M -my ri x =),g-ami Afda Inx g-miy Bug m rm 1 n,ing-Fam -mi Bug rt Vu $ Mi s ing Permit V , V ua ; ing -mi , -Famy nr Valua . =t 12 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW ANNUAL HISTORY AND F'ORECASTS: 2014-2019 YEAR-TO-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES & 1.1 1.5 & 1.1 1.1 . rti & Warg ........ Ui ...........1.8 ... Fi Acvs Inform ......4 .. Psi & Bs 1.7 c & & o 1.7 v 1.3 & c v s s o c 8 s P i o i & 5 . M i P ,F y ....... Pr In x (=)F ami y 1 ....8 Affor ab ty x g ...8 1... Buil i P it a R rmi . sii ,g am y ... R s , iF mi y . Builing P mit V u tio B li g P mi V uati ....4 8 -3 e V .......... R i y ..1 ... i Mu Fam ........... .. Ai R .4 t nrs uai .4 = F s JUNE 2019 13 CALIFORNIA VARIABLES TABLE 9 Ql}ARTERLY HISTORY AN·o FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:4 LEVELS & & & Lse_Hspty 9 ,8 , O rv .... vnun .,, I F Cl vrn .I ...... _. Ll vrnmn ,, Prn In($Mili) a rsl I :8 , Tx Sal($Mill n s C 9 O S & ( n S ( 8 P P n($Milli n): l g rmi ua .,,,4 , To R n uan ,44 ,, ,-y ,4 ( M -, Ads ,,, l N nr a ua ,, F 14 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIE\A ' Q1JARTER1Y HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:4 ( YEAR-TO-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES 18:1 18:2 18:3 18:4 19:1 19:2f 19:3f 19:4f & 1.3 & & & & & 1.1 van vrnm -1.1 ------- & L vrn 1. Pon Im: t Incm 4 Txl S: T axb 1 Mrg g Drink M Vl .-2.3 Exitg H: S ,gmi & g x g r b mi l ng : 1.4 M t V o ,gmi 1 M -- Ad,v -l --0 - nr l un ---- f JUNE 2019 15 2019 ORANGE COUNTY FORECAST UPDATE GROWTH PROSPECTS.WEAKEN -ON ALL FRONTS BUT IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE g 19 crr gi T g fi xn a p u i 018:4 19:1 c 5 p y-d 018 , id prm d -- 45 :4 6 19:1 Smy,15 p s q B b ru s i rnnd s T i gg r amo 100 i s i n a mn Th m rp mg ty'g bity g fiu HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 19: I l 9:3f 18:3 18: I 17:3 2018:3 2019:4 Monthly P & I payment $3,407 $3,041 Payment as a % of income 39.8% 33.6% Qualifying Income $163,554 $145,947 Home Price to Income Ratio 8.1 7.2 17:l 60 70 Index 75 65 T ,y e n p e nn.B i uty'dty gs l: PURCHASING A MEDIAN PRICED HOME 19: I 18:4 18:3 18:2 �I ! CHAPMAN I !__, PROJECTIOr -· � I EIJD EST!MrES - 2 0 18:1 Au b E rr jb w 'pm jci g sdy d j wt hrg rr pc e n a ru m ncrn s 7 1 n fi q f 1,i y firs qe f y.F b o j ty ru i y l T ru Yr/Yr% Change 3 16 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET TO SELL A'HOME 160 140 120 100 80 , 60 '---'---r- 1 ; I 40 �� 9 O Cty R H --29 A C kn fi fl rm ty ff tr F t fu prm 8 p 8 85 rm TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PERMITS j futu m ry u I 5 c A y fiu,v j ,5 s ,28 c 219 T w s ff rt u g fl A ,c ju ru ' x ru u u ry J ru ru k fi n & s rv A ,l m ty u, rm rv j C j o U F j wt C 2 rn PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT % 4 3.2 3.1 3 2 0 '15 '16 '17 15 12 9 6 3 I i.i I 12.1 ORANGE C:::OUNTY FORECAST TABLES Activity, p ann�al a.h.s d 0 p .quarterly v n y-yar:e he-o qurty s. JUNE 2019 '14 '15 '16 '17 1 1 17 ORANGE COUNTYVARJABLES . TABLE 11 I ANNUAL HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2014-2019 ( LEVELS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f Payroll Employment (Thousands): & & & 3 & & & II & Personal Income($ Millions): Taxable Sales($ Millions): Prt .7 8 rv S ,76 A h ,,,44 Existing Homes: S S-amy & , Pri,-miy 8 , Pri x (=)ig-mi 13 Affdaty Inx,Sg-miy .6 Building Permits: rmi -ami 6 n -miy , Building Permit Valuation($ Millions): P rm 6 4 7 R ua 76 R g -miy ..8 1 I R Mu -mi I A tio R o\ ua = 18 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW ANNUAL HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2014-2019 YEAR-TO-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES & 0.1 Infrm - e Buin 3 5 Eu Hea .......4 7 Lsu & Hpay .. O Srve .3 3 - rnm dr Cvan vrnm -1 1.- S L vmnt.. rsn n s e 1.9 e a d e .1.6 S S O 7 s S 3 e d S r e ,ul a 6 --8 Buildin r it V u tin T al Bui n rmi V uat - V ua ....-8 - n Sing mi y --- Re ,ami --- d ,v ..-1.1 - N nr e al V ua i -7 - JUNE 2019 19 ORANGE COUNTY VARIABLES . TABLE 1 Ql]ARTERLY HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:� LEVELS 18:1 18:2 18:3 18:4 19:1 19:2f 19:3f 19:4f & & & . & & ........3 L & ptt Oh S vrnm r vrnmn 1 t & L Grnm .... l Im($Milli) Inm ..3 ,3 ,,3 Txl Sle($Milli: x S , n hdin n C !· 3 h 3 Oh 3 : S,S & C e,S 3 3 , In () In 3 : 3 S 3 $: , 3 3 . v ns Nonresidential Va = 20 ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REV11 QlJARTERLY HISTORY AND FORECASTS: 2018:1-2019:4 YEAR- TO-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES 18:1 18:2 18:3 18:4. 19:1 19:2f 19:3f 19:4f & .6 3 dabe G ..........3 9 - Serv ..1.1.1.1. r,Tanrtt & Utilti 8 .3 . Wholse Td I.I 8 . R an rt & it t t l & 8 d t & t & 8 e 1 6 8 l St & G 8 8 o l o t S l er t 8 .4 . Al Fd Drink .8 V d P rt ...4 .9 1.5 9 1. rv c ta o ..............9 18 .3 8 8.9 A Oth 9 .4 ..4 1.7 S l F & d 6 6 1 1 8 e Sl l P l b e l-8 8 8 d l e -8 t S F 8 8 i 8 1 8 d P V 8 8 3 Tot V to .1 3 3 3 -3 1 8 9 3 d l 8 -8 l ti F .............188 38.8 .3 7.1 8 i ,.1 8 .9 T Nonr sd n ial 8 8 5 -. Fe JUNE 2019 21 PEOPLE VOTE WITH. THEIR FEET BY JAMES DOTI AND RAYMOND SFEIR NET ANNUAL DOMESTIC INFLOW '17 '16 '15 '14 '13 '12 '11 50 In Thousands 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 -./-�i--�+-�-+-=-===��--+-�---l State Business Tax Climate Index, James Doti is president emeritus and professor of economics at Chapman University. Raymond Sfeir is director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and professor of economics. A slightly different version of this article was originally published in the Orange County Business Journal on May 13, 2019. NET ANNUAL DOMESTIC OUTFLOW ,,--- -. :i. In Thousands 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 '11 '12 '13 22 '14 '15 '16 '17 gr y (- 01)US.B Ama Cmmty Srv Th i e ECONOMIC & BUSINESS R.EVII 2 NEGATIVE VALUES ARE NET OUTFLOWS WHILE POSITIVE VALUES ARE NET INFLOWS -2 -3 -4 in tax CHART 2: TOTAL NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION, 2011-2017 3 WHILE POSITIVE VALUES ARE INFLOWS hig ax ow ax nkig)ankg) 0 - CHART 1: AVERAGE NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION, 2011-2017 P Pop 20 NEGATIVE VALUES ARE OUTFLOWS v rr tw nk s ei ne grn gn 99 l of ,nk y i T tr ly qu h nk C ql a nk (8 )rp e n e q h eg fl (+nfl ) i JUNE 2019 23 :i•, ,,,.·-�...; .... -r.-.·- ... -�--.·r-:;,.� - -:.�'·.t.,\:. ... ·-� --�- �� ··-� ,., �� " ... ! :� ·;; <,1 r..��·:: .;,.l� • • , •. ..,,_., � ,1 -� c� ·, ;'" • ,, � .. :·�.: >/_;�·�; .... ": i' �· �- :, ... ,.��>} ;-_·�; ::\f\t:·;� .. ..... ·�:�}:.:=,. ··--·? ;,j. _ _'\ r7 •. ::;�-� . _· ... };T�\Wf� ��f�\' ,,, �YJ bi1 � � �JJ,, .·'. ·., •. '. . • .. .. � • . ' ·: ·.·� . 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